France can breathe a sigh of relief but the real test for the country’s new president will be effectively governing in a divided country, writes François Le Goff.
Emmanuel Macron’s clear win against the Front National on Sunday marks a new departure for France and sends a strong, positive message to the world and particularly other Western countries battling against populism. After elections in Austria and the Netherlands, another blow was dealt to the protectionist tendencies that were seen as the root cause of the Brexit vote in the UK and Donald Trump’s rise to power in the US. This is a cause for celebrations for advocates of open and inclusive societies. Another piece of good news is that for the first time in recent history France will have a resolutely centrist government and bold agenda of reforms – the coalition of the willing that François Fillon once said was needed to put the country back on its feet, with figures from across the political spectrum and civil society.
The election of a 39 year old man who launched his own political movement (and now party called La République En Marche) just over a year ago and was virtually unknown to the public before becoming Economy Minister in 2014 is unprecedented and a measure of France’s great appetite for change. It is a personal victory for Emmanuel Macron who prevailed against all the odds over well established traditional parties. But this is not a political victory, at least not yet. Many of the 20.7 million voters who opted for him would have done so in order to block the Front National. The other inconvenient truth about this election is the historically high number of abstentions (25.4%) and “votes blancs” or blank ballots (8.5%). It was only the second time since 1969 that abstention levels were higher in the second round of a presidential contest. With a total number of 15 million registered voters, this protest vote cannot be ignored. It puts abstentionists in second place after Emmanuel Macron, pushing Marine Le Pen and her 10.6 million backers into third position.
Now that the Front National has been defeated, the new French president will have to address the great defiance and dissatisfaction that was expressed by a large number of citizens in this second round. It will be even more challenging given the new political landscape that emerged when the first April results came out: four groups of roughly equivalent importance – Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Insoumis, La République En Marche, Les Républicains/UDI and the Front National – will face each other in the June legislative elections. The supporters of the three other main parties, many of which abstained last Sunday, will make their voice heard loud and clear in June to try and deny Emmanuel Macron a parliament majority. This is reflected in an Ipsos/Sopra Steria poll released shortly after Sunday’s results: 61% of French people do not want him to have a majority.
With or without a majority, key to Emmanuel Macron’s success long term will be to convince the 48% of French voters who supported parties that are anti-EU, anti-big business and anti-globalisation that a liberal agenda can deliver growth, prosperity and stability for the many. If he does not succeed, this 48% will grow further and the likelihood of a far-right or far-left party winning the presidency will become even more real. These parties have time on their side and will come back with a vengeance if given the opportunity. Emmanuel Macron and his centrist allies will have to tread a very fine line.
François Le Goff is General Secretary of the Club of Three. The views and opinions expressed in this article are personal.
Published in May 2017